Thursday, September 23, 2010

UFC 119 Staff Predictions

UFC 119: Mir vs. Cro Cop
Saturday, September 25th at 7 p.m on PPV
Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Main Card:
Frank Mir vs. Mirko Cro Cop (Heavyweight Bout)

Mike Bohn: I may be in the minority when I say this fight excites me more than the original main event for the card, this contest puts two of the most successful heavyweight fighters of all time against one another. I question the motivation of Mirko in this fight, however, if he shows up in form it could be a short and painful night for Frank Mir. Cro Cop is unquestionably the more proven striker and Mir has the better ground game. Mir has never had great wrestling skills and almost all of his submissions have come from his back. I have little confidence Mir will be able to get Cro Cop to the ground, even if he does Mirko is very good at avoiding damage from the bottom position. Unless Cro Cop shows up completely unmotivated and out of shape I anticipate body kicks and straight lefts until Mir folds up and quits.  Mirko Cro Cop via TKO R2

Erik Jackson:
From the time this fight was announced, Mirko has been busy making excuses saying he is not going to be at 100% and he just took the fight because he could not say no to the UFC. Even without his eye injury I think Frank Mir is just too powerful for Mirko to handle. As much as I would love to see Mirko win in vintage devastating fashion, I think that Frank will ground and pound his way to a victory. Frank Mir via TKO R2

Travis Crowe:
This is a tough fight to consider. On one hand you have the Legend Cro Cop who as we know is always lethal no matter how old he is getting. He is a UFC 115 homie and is just starting to find his new submission game! Unfortunately for him, he is facing Frank Mir, easily one of the best heavyweights in the world regardless of his somewhat average fight record. I foresee striking for the first few minutes followed with Mir taking Cro Cop to the ground and trying to impose his will. Frank Mir via TKO R1

Jon Gerow:
As much as the Pride fans hate hearing this, Mir has the advantage in the stand up and we all know if this one hits the floor it will be a short night for Crocop. UFC > PRIDE. Frank Mir via TKO R2

Paul Curtis:
Mir's only 2 losses the past 4 years have been too 2 NCAA championship winning 265lb+ wrestlers. He is a former 2 time UFC Heavyweight champion, the only person on the planet who has beaten Brock Lesnar, and was the first person to finish Big Nog. Crocop on the other hand hasn't had a notable win in basically 4 years. His last victory was against a one dimensional half dead Pat Barry. He beat Anthony Perosh? who? and he even needed the doctors help to finish him. Crocop is one of the most overrated fighters since entering the UFC and has been on the major downfall since '06. Mir can win this fight any way he wants. Frank Mir via Submission R1

Patrick Weafer:
As much as I like Mirko, I think Mir takes this one. I feel that he will be quick enough to match Cro Cop’s speed and undoubtedly have a strength advantage. If Mirko shows up ready and prepared he may have a slight striking advantage, but I still think that Mir’s new boxing talents will be enough to do away with Cro Cop. I’d love to see one last stunning Cro Cop KO, but it won’t happen at 119. Frank Mir via Unanimous Decision


Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader (Light Heavyweight Bout)

Mike Bohn:
People are quick to judge Nogeuria for a big of a disappointing performance over the relatively unknown Jason Brilz, I believe the experience of that fight will only help Nogeuria when he faces undefeated Ryan Bader in the co-main event.  Lil’ Nog has the advantage just about everywhere except the wrestling department; but if Eric Shaefer can threaten Bader with submissions and sweeps from the ground, then Nogueria shouldn’t have too much to worry about.  I think this fight is too much, too soon for Ryan Bader. Lil’ Nog has, for the most part, had his way with wrestle-boxers in the past and I expect this fight to end with his hand raised. Lil’ Nog via TKO R2

Erik Jackson:
This should be an interesting fight and we’ll be able to find out just how much Bader’s striking has improved. Lil’ Nog is a veteran who looked very good in his first fight in the UFC but unfortunately had a setback in his last fight as he was just barely able to squeak out a victory over Jason Brillz. I feel like Ryan’s striking has improved enough to stand with Nog and eventually get the TKO. Ryan Bader via TKO R3

Travis Crowe:
Lil Nog looked very shaky in his last fight against replacement Jason Brillz, there is no doubt in my mind if he had of fought Forrest he wouldn’t of come away with that victory. Bader basically helped contribute to ending the Dean of Means life in his last meeting, however I do not expect this fight to be as easy. As much as I want Lil Nog to come out with the victory, I think that Bader will take him down out maneuver him, avoid a submission and eventually ground and pound for the win. Ryan Bader via TKO R2

Jon Gerow:
Before the Brillz fight I would have predicted Lil Nog to win this one. Since Bader is a much better wrestler and striker than Brillz. Look for Bader to use his power and wrestling to control this fight to earn the victory. Ryan Bader via Split Decision

Paul Curtis:
A very interesting fight based on the fact Lil Nog almost lost to a controlling wrestler the last time he entered the cage. Bader has been climbing the later since winner TUF and looks like he'll be a major contender for the LHW championship in the very near future. Look for Bader to surprise a lot of people and control the fight wherever it goes, mixing up his striking and take downs very well. Ryan Bader via Unanimous Decision

Patrick Weafer:
Lil’ Nog didn’t impress me with his UFC 114 performance against Jason Brilz - I thought he lost the fight – with Brilz hanging with the Brazilian both on the feet and on the floor. Bader is better than Brilz at almost every aspect of the game, and I expect Ryan to continue his unbeaten streak and move up the LHW ladder. Although Nog has only been stopped by Sokoudjou, Brilz landed some solid punches and I expect the exponentially more powerful Bader to do the same. Bader via (T)KO


Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle (Welterweight Bout)

Mike Bohn:
A big fight for both men and a rematch of the Ultimate Fight 4 Finale. I believe Lytle earned the decision, but Serra won the first fight by a razon thin split decision and went on to upset GSP for the title, Lytle on the other hand, has had his ups and downs since that fight. This should be a fight that has a little bit of everything but I anticipate Lytle correct the few mistakes he made in the first match and win this fight in his home town. Chris Lytle via Unanimous Decision

Erik Jackson:
Chris Lytle seems to be always looking for a fight bonus so except this to be another entertaining fight by him. Matt is looking to avenge his loss to Chris a few years ago but unfortunately Chris has just gotten better since that fight. Chris Lytle via TKO

Travis Crowe:
A rematch of TUF4 Finale where Serra defeated Lytle in what was a somewhat lack luster performance will hopefully not happen again. Hopefully both men look to come out and finish the fight quickly instead of 3 long rounds. However I think those chances are slim unless Lights Out pulls off a sub. Chris Lytle via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow:
My choice for Fight of the Night, Lytle has the skills (and chin) to pick Serra apart standing and the BJJ to avoid any submission attempts by Serra. Chris Lytle via TKO R3

Paul Curtis:
This fight is basically guaranteed to win FOTN honours, with 2 very exciting and well rounded fighters. Both looked good in their last fights and hope to make runs at the title soon. I think that although Matt Serra's reach and height may play a disadvantage, I still see him coming away with the win, mainly
winning the stand-up exchanges. Matt Serra via Unanimous Decision

Patrick Weafer:
I love Serra and doubt I’ll ever pick against him. He’s one of the best personalities in MMA, plus he’s beaten Lytle before. For me, that’s reason enough to pick him. I’m hoping for a technical display of jiu-jitsu or another KO. Matt Serra via Unanimous Decision


Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk (Lightweight Bout)

Mike Bohn:
Evan Dunham is one of the top prospects in the UFC lightweight division and will look to build on his undefeated record when he takes on veteran Sean Sherk. Many questions surround Sherk in this fight as he comes back from a long layoff due to injuries. Dunham attempt to employ a strategy similar to the one he used against Tyson Griffin in June. He will look to control the cage with his height and reach advantage while avoiding takedowns and looking for counters. If the Sean Sherk who fought Kenny Florian and Hermes Franca shows up for this fight, it could be a long night for Dunham.  Chances are Sherk still believes he is a high level boxer and that will be his downfall. Evan Dunham via Unanimous Decision

Erik Jackson:
Even Dunham is the real deal. An impressive win against a veteran like Sean Sherk would get him very close to a title shot against Frankie. Look for him to pick Sean apart before finishing him on the ground. Evan Dunham via TKO R2

Travis Crowe:
I expect this fight to take fight of the night honors’. Evan Dunham is a rising star in the lightweight division and a win against seasoned vet Sherk will put him in the mix of top fighters in the division. There is no doubt in my mind that Sherk has the advantage in cardio and wrestling, but it will be interesting to see if he takes it to the ground. Evan has superior BJJ and could potential submit Sherk. Not to mention that Dunham is a UFC 115 homie, which cements the fact that he will be the one with his hand raised at the end of this fight. Evan Dunham via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow:
Really tough fight for Sherk as he is taking on a rising star with lots of momentum in Dunham. Sherk will suffer from ring rust and a reach disadvantage. Look for Dunham to find his range and pick Sherk apart for the victory. Evan Dunham via Unanimous Decision

Paul Curtis:
Sean Sherk hasn't fought in basically a decade. Dunham has never lost, while looking great in the process. I see far more ways for Evan to win this fight than Sherk. Evan Dunham via Submission R2

Patrick Weafer:
Sherk has only lost to current or former champions, and I doubt Evan Dunham is at that caliber quite yet. Even though Sherk is getting older, and his injury record shows that his body is feeling the wear and tear, I expect him to put on a wrestling clinic against Dunham. Sean Sherk via Unanimous Decision


Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens (Lightweight Bout)

Mike Bohn:
Both these men like to stand and exchange, and neither has been KO’d or TKO’d in their careers. Melvin is one of the most powerful strikers in the lightweight and has looked much improved since training under Greg Jackson. Jeremy Stephens also has big power and will try to win 3 straight fights for the first time in his UFC career. Melvin seems to really be putting it together for the first time in his career and I anticipate a big win for him Saturday after a 3 round war. Melvin Guillard via Unanimous Decision

Erik Jackson:
Both fighters are coming into this fight on their own two fight winning streaks. Look for this to be an entertaining fight and I possible FOTN candidate. I see a back and forth fight but I think Melvin should pull through. Melvin Guillard via Unanimous Decision

Travis Crowe:
This should be an exciting fight, hopefully Melvin will opt not to try takedowns and these two will just stand and brawl. I think that between the two of them there is the potential for a UD however hopfully that will not be the case and Lil Heathen will come through with a victory. Jeremy Stephens via TKO R3

Jon Gerow:
Melvin and Jeremy will stand and bang it out in this one, the deciding factor in this one is that Melvin trains with Greg Jackson and Jeremy Stephens doesn't..Melvin Guillard via VICIOUS Slam KO R2

Paul Curtis:
Another potential great fight. I think Melvin has the better overral game, and if he doesn't get caught trying to standup with the heavy handed Stephens I think he should win this fight. Melvin Guillard via Unaminous Decision

Patrick Weafer:
This is an excellent frontrunner candidate for FOTN. For some reason I’m feeling a lot of these fights going to decision, but I can almost guarantee that this one will end in fireworks. Neither of these men are particularly well versed in the submission game, and I hope to see an entertaining STANDANDBANG fight with this one. Melvin Guillard via (T)KO

Prelims after the jump:


Spike TV Prelims:
CB Dollaway vs. Joe Doerksen (Middleweight Bout)

Mike Bohn:
As happy as it makes me to see Joe Doerksen on a 7 fight win streak, CB Dollaway should put an end to it. Dollaway is a bigger, younger version of Doerksen and should be able to control the fight from top position. It wouldn’t shock me to see the veteran Doerksen lock in a fight ending submission from the bottom, but Dollaway has made that mistake before and I picture him conservatively controlling his way to a victory. CB Dollaway via Unanimous Decision

Erik Jackson:
It would appear as if CB has the training advantage as he trains with the likes of Ryan Bader and Cain Velasquez and I think he will win. That being said, I’m going to pick the Canadian kid to pull this one off. Joe Doerksen via whatever he wants (UD)

Travis Crowe:
This fight is a classic wrestling vs. BJJ, both men looked impressive in their last outings (UFC based) especially Joe taking out Tom Lawlor. It will be interesting to see what C.B. ‘s game plan is, obviously he is the superior wrestler but how will his ground game match up against Joe’s impressive BJJ. This could either be 3 rounds of C.B. out wrestling Joe, or it could end up with Joe catching C.B. and finishing him with a submission. C.B. Dollaway via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow:
Joe Doerkson because Chael Sonnen said so. Joe Doerkson via Unanimous Decision

Paul Curtis:
Could end up being a pretty boring fight. C.B Dollaway via Unaminous Decison

Patrick Weafer: :
I expect the Canadian vet to pull through in this one and extend his win streak to 8. Doerksen looked good in his fight with Tom Lawler, and I’m hoping for another submission out of him, as both of Dollaway’s losses have come via submission. Joe Doerksen via Submission R2


Joey Beltran vs. Matt Mitrione (Heavyweight Bout)

Mike Bohn:
The four UFC wins these two fighters have between them are over fighters no longer in the UFC, does that tell us anything? Probably not but Beltran is the first non-African that Mitrione has faced in his undefeated career, how will that effect him? Both these men have major power but career wins over unproven fighters like Kimbo Slice and Marcus Jones are not enough to convince me that Mitrione can hang with “The Mexicutioner”. Joey Beltran via TKO R2

Erik Jackson:
I like Matt in this one. He’s one of the weirdest fighters in my mind but it seems to work for him. Matt Mitrione via TKO round 3

Travis Crowe:
Both fighters are looking to continue their win streak and end this fight in devastating fashion. Both men have knockout power however it will be their heart that will determine who the victor is. Meathead is coming off of a strong outing against Internet sensation Kimbo and turned a lot of heads after what some would call an upset. I expect Mitrione and Beltran to fight 3 grueling rounds toe to toe. Matt Mitrione via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow:
With notable wins over UFC/TUF vets Marcus Jones and Kimbo Slice Mitrione has got it easy in this one. Matt Mitrione via KO R2

Paul Curtis:
Matt Mitrione beat the living legend Kimbo Slice. How can this man lose? Matt Mitrione via KO R1

Patrick Weafer:
The only battle Beltran wins tonight is a nickname contest. Mitrione’s record is impressive: 2 (T)KO victories, 2 ended careers as Meathead sent fan favourites Kimbo Slice and Marcus “The Darkness” Jones packing from the UFC. While his career ending streak will most likely end, as The Mexicutioner is riding a 3 fight win streak, his (T)KO streak will continue. Matt Mitrione via (T)KO R2

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