UFC 121 Staff Predictions

UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez
Saturday, October 23^rd at 7 p.m on PPV
Honda Center in Anaheim, California, USA

Main Card:
Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez (Heavyweight Title Bout)
Mike Bohn: This fight is really a coin toss but the major x-factor will be Cain’s ability to stop the takedowns of Brock. If Velasquez can keep this fight on the feet Lesnar is going to have his hands full, and could take some serious damage. We have yet to see Cain off of his back so it will be interesting to see what happens if he ends up there. For whatever reason I cannot picture Lesnar finishing Cain, I can, however see Cain endlessly attacking Brock and for that reason I will go with my gut. Cain Velasquez via TKO R3

Erik Jackson: This is going to be a crazy fight. A part of me wants to see Brock keep winning forever, another part of my wants to see Cain pick him apart and solidify his badass status. I would not be surprised what so ever is Cain pulls is out but I have to go with my heart.  Brock Lesnar via TKO R3

Travis Crowe: I have officially hoped on the Brock bandwagon unless he has another go with superstar Frank Mir. Brocktober ain’t for nothing. I believe Cain doesn’t have the tools to defeat Brock. However I do think this will be a 5 round war. Brock Lesnar via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow: Look for this fight to mirror the UFC 118 bout between Gray Maynard and Kenny Florian. Like Florian, Velasquez holds the striking advantage, but will be unable to find his range due to the fear of the takedown. One might argue unlike Kenny, Cain has the wrestling pedigree but I can’t see him stuffing Brocks takedowns again and again. Velasquez has a lot of heart and a great chin. It’s safe to say this one is going the distance. Brock Lesnar via Unanimous Decision

Paul Curtis: The deciding factor in this fight will most likely be how big a difference Brocks size makes. If Cain can handle the 30-40lb weight difference he wins the fight, if he cannot Lesnar takes this. I think many people are underestimating Brocks stand up and cardio. He can compete anywhere the fight goes. Look for Brock to push Cain up against the fence and attempt to force a take down, and succeed. Brock Lesnar via TKO R2

Patrick Weafer: The advantages that I see Cain having in this fight are striking, speed, technique, and his cardio. But with rumours floating around that he will weigh in at as much as 250 (up from the 239-242 range) for Saturday’s event, his cardio may take a hit. Add to that the fact that Brock has been training extensively with Pat Barry, a much better overall striker than Cain Velasquez, I think Brock will be more than prepared for this fight. Brock may hit Cain standing, but I expect him to gain top position and use his superior strength and size to keep Cain down and proceed to land quick powerful punches and finish Cain via TKO. Brock Lesnar via TKO R3, followed by celebratory Coronas and burritos for all.

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann (Welterweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: This fight could very well determine the next challenger to the welterweight title. All the pressure is on Shields to perform in this fight, he has to come in and make a statement Saturday night. Kampmann has looked great at 170 but this fight all comes down to how good his TDD is going to be, he has never faced a powerhouse wrestler in the UFC and this fight will show us if he is ready for the Koscheck’s, Fitch’s and St.Pierre’s of the world. I believe Shields will land some takedowns in this fight and control from the top for a period of time. However, I am not convinced Shields has the stand up or submission game to finish Kampmann but he will grind out a victory which will put him closer to that welterweight title shot. Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision

Erik Jackson: This is another one that is very tough to call. UFC 115 homie Kampmann looked very impressive against Paulo Thiago, but Jake Shields looked equally impressive against Hendo. I don’t really want to see Jake vs. GSP for the title right now, so I would rather Kampmann pulls this off. Unfortunately all Jake does is win, so I’ll go with the winner. Jake Shields via Split decision

Travis Crowe: This fight will most likely be 3 rounds of Shields taking Kampmann down leading to a frustrating fight for everyone. But who knows maybe the “Hitman” will land a devastating KO for everyone’s sake. Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow:  Although I would like to see Kampmann spoil Shield’s hype coming into the UFC, I find it unlikely that he will be able to deal with the grappling of Shields in only 15 minutes. Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision

Paul Curtis: Jake Shields is coming into this fight to out grapple his opponent, and Kampmann looks to avoid that aspect, not that he can't grapple, I just believe Jake is the better grappler of the two. If Martin can avoid the takedowns his stand up his more technical and should be able to out strike Shields. I believe the takedowns of Shields will prove to be successful, thus deciding the fight. Jake Shields by Unanimous Decision

Patrick Weafer: Shields has good enough striking and defense to avoid being TKO’d, and good enough setups to get it to the ground. Kampmann has good enough jiu-jitsu to avoid the submission but poor enough TDD to get taken down and controlled to a decision. Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision

Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago (Welterweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: Sanchez should be fighting at lightweight. Thiago is coming off of a loss to Martin Kampmann in a fight many believed he would dominate, getting him closer to a title shot. Unfortunately that fight did not go his way and Thiago is back to the drawing board. Paulo has the ground game and improving stand up to keep Sanchez at bay everywhere this fight goes, that will be his key to vitory. Diego supposed ably wasn’t training seriously for Hathaway, now that he is back at Greg Jackson’s camp I see him avoiding losing three straight for the first time in his career. Diego Sanchez via Unanimous Decision

Erik Jackson: After that loss to young Hathaway I lost some respect for Diego. This should be a good fight as both men are looking to get back on track after disappointing performances in their last outings. My heart says Diego, but my mind says Paulo. Paulo Thiago via Split decision

Travis Crowe: I expect this to be an explosive brawl. Both Paulo and Diego are coming off sub-par performances and need this win to rebound and keep them in the top tier of welterweight fighters. Unfortunately I think Diego’s pace will triumph over UFC 115 homie Thiago, and will ultimately win a gruelling 3 round decision. Diego Sanchez via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow: Why Diego is still fighting at 170 astonishes me. Paulo will look to rebound coming off a dominating loss and Diego will be forced back down to the 155 division. Paulo Thiago via Unanimous Decision

Paul Curtis: FOTN potentially no doubt, for sure. Most likely neither of these two will finish, and Diego's the one on the downfall. Paulo Thiago via Unanimous Decision

Patrick Weafer: Sanchez hasn’t looked good in his last few fights, I believe BJ broke his once unwavering spirit; no more YES cartwheels for him. UFC 115 homie Paulo Thiago via Unanimous Decision.

Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill (Light Heavyweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: Oh god......another Tito Ortiz fight, if he doesn’t have a cracked skull MAYBE he has a chance this time around. Realistically though, October 10^th marked the 4 year anniversary of Tito’s last win. "The Hammer" is on a 4 fight win streak and beat Jon Jones, nuff said. Matt Hamill via Unanimous Decision

Erik Jackson: Tito Ortiz is worse than a demon. I hope he gets his skull pounded. Matt Hamill via TKO R3

Travis Crowe: Tito is a pussy and is going to try and wrestle "The Hammer" to the ground and inflict some serious ground and pound, in which case Hamill loses. But since Tito is a bitch, I hope Hamill KO’s him and then is DQ’d for an illegal soccer kick to the face. Tito Ortiz via DQ

Jon Gerow: Tough one for Ortiz as Hamill is slightly better at everything that Tito does well, and he’s younger. I’m really pulling for an “injury free” Tito to pull the upset (knock on wood) but when I visualize this fight I don’t see it going Tito’s way. Matt Hamill via Unanimous Decision

Paul Curtis: Tito beaked deaf people and Hamill's going to be choked! In all seriousness this could go either way, and whoever is more successful with their takedowns will win the fight. Tito will take Matt's will on fight night. Tito Ortiz via Unanimous Decision

Patrick Weafer: I hear Tito is at 100% for this fight. Tito hasn’t won since 2006, and I don’t think his wrestling will be enough to stifle the equally talented Matt Hamill. Hamill takes this in a fairly one-sided decision. Hamill beat Jon Jones so he has to be good. Matt Hamill via Unanimous Decision

Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (Heavyweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: Gonzaga’s UFC record is not particularly impressive, most of his wins are again heavyweights no longer in the organization, and while he has run through all those fighters, he has not shown the ability to perform against the elite. Is Schaub a rising star who will use Gonzaga's name to catapult himself near the top of the division? There are many questions about Schaub as he has never had a fight last longer than 4 minutes. Both men will come out looking to finish and whoever can connect first will likely win this fight. I think Gonzaga has the more dynamic stand up and will put Schaub away in devastating fashion. Gabriel Gonzaga via KO R1

Erik Jackson: I hope more than anything "Napao" can pull this off. He’s more experienced and I think a better all around fighter then Brendan. Brendan’s suspect chin will hopefully become a little more suspect once Gabriel is done with him. Gabriel Gonzaga via TKO R2

Travis Crowe: It is simple, Schaub is going to stand in the pocket and box… "Napao" is going to see if he can stand with him and attempt some clinch work in which case he will get KO’d… or he will realize his strength is to try to and keep the fight at range and use kicks to neutralize Brendan. Gabriel Gonzaga via TKO R2

Jon Gerow:  Schaub will look to keep this one on the feet as Gabriel’s BJJ is light-years ahead of his. It’s a coin toss if these two decide to stand, both hold knockout power, but I believe Schaub’s competitive drive and momentum will win him this fight early. Brendan Schaub via TKO round 1

Paul Curtis: Gonzaga could pose a very big threat on the ground for Schaub. We really haven't seen Schaub on his back for any large amount of time. Gabe has a heavy ground game and could control the fight on the ground. I think Schaub will be prepared for that, along with his stand-up currently being better. Brendan Schaub via TKO R1

Patrick Weafer: While neither man has ever been to a decision; Gonzaga has only lost to the elite in the heavyweight division, and has all the tools to finish any opponent that stands before him. Napao’s problem is his heart; he tends to wilt when faced with pressure. I expect Schaub to press him and use his power to put Gonzaga away on the feet, but I really hope "Napao" is able to deliver a finish and get back on track. Gabriel Gonzaga via TKO R1

Spike TV Prelims after the Jump:

Preliminary Card (Spike TV):

Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen (Middleweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: Ryan Jensen has had one of the most up and down UFC careers in history and I expect this fight to be another down. Court McGee has a lot of momentum recently winning season 11 of the Ultimate Fighter, I expect McGee to run through Jensen and finish this fight inside the distance with a submission.  Court McGee via Submission R2

Erik Jackson: Battle of top contenders here. Court McGee via Submission R1

Travis Crowe: Court! via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow: Fellow BasementKnee staff Paul Curtis has McGee on his UFC 117 “homies” list, as he was fortunate enough to meet him at the event. Since this fight is on Paul’s 19th birthday, I’ll go with McGee. Court McGee via TKO R2

Paul Curtis: TUF 11 winner Court McGee is considered among one of the worst TUF winners they've had. However, if he has continued to improve since then I think this is a winnable fight for him. Court McGee via Submission R2

Patrick Weafer: McGee lasted 15 minutes with Jeremy Horn in his seventh fight, that’s enough for me to take him in this one. Court McGee via Submission R2

Patrick Côté vs. Tom Lawlor (Middleweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: Isn’t it strange how almost 2 years ago to the day Côté was fighting for the middleweight title? Both men have lost two straight and are fighting to keep their heads above water in a rapidly evolving middleweight division. Côté should have the advantage basically everywhere and I feel he will be more comfortable in the cage this time around as his knee should be fully recovered. Côté has the advantage in power and I expect him to clip Lawlor and put him away about half way through the fight. Patrick Côté via TKO R2

Erik Jackson: Although "Filthy" is one of the sickest nicknames in the UFC, "Peeping" Tom Lawler would have better suited him. I need to root for the Canadian here. Should be a good fight as both men are in serious need of a win.  Patrick Côté via Unanimous Decision

Travis Crowe: Peeping Tom Lawlor and Côté...not a very relevant fight, but when is it when Lawlor is fighting ? I expect Côté to trade with Peeping Tom before being taken down and virtually losing the first round after a few submission attempts fail. However, in the second round the Predator will come out and lay some heavy hands ending with a TKO victory after dropping Filthy. Patrick Côté via TKO R2

Jon Gerow: Côté suffered from ring rust in his last fight, ala Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Forrest Griffin. He will look to rebound coming off the loss to Alan Belcher. Look for Côté to showcase his striking by picking Tom Lawlor apart to an eventual second round TKO. Patrick Côté via TKO R2

Paul Curtis: Patrick Côté has an iron chin and a powerful right hand. This will be the deciding factor of the fight. Patrick Côté via KO R2

Patrick Weafer: Ring rust is real. I’m willing to write off the performance against Alan Belcher, hopefully we’ll see the Canadian do well in this one after 2 sub-par performances in the octagon. Fun fact: Joe Doerksen submitted both of these men via RNC. Côté has a much strong strength of schedule and with his power advantage I believe he has more ways to finish the fight. Patrick Côté via TKO R3